霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至90%。

1. Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to become better defined.  The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing
some signs of organization.  Conditions are expected to remain
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or Thursday while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至80%

1. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is
forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is becoming a little better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 120700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 205 NM RADIUS OF 11.4N 128.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.2W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.3N 128.2W, APPROXIMATELY 1627 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120229Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH SHALLOW AND WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
CENTER. AN 111818Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE ELONGATED WIND FIELD
OF MOSTLY 15-20 KTS WITH SOME 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. INVEST 92E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130700Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC於剛才發出的展望中將評級提升至Medium,40%/70%

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a poorly defined low pressure area
has formed in association with the elongated area of disturbed
weather located around 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.  Additional development is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days.  The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the
central Pacific basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.