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霧峰追風者|2020-8-19 10:51
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稍早強度減弱為C3，不再看好增強，將逐漸減弱。000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190234
TCDEP2
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020
While Genevieve continues to have a distinct eye on satellite
images, the inner-core convection has weakened during the past
several hours, although there is little evidence of any eyewall
replacement cycle starting. The majority of the satellite estimates
range from 100 to 110 kt, and a blend of these values gives an
initial wind speed of 105 kt.
My strong suspicion is that the hurricane has weakened today due to
it encountering cooler SSTs from the wake of Hurricane Elida (from
last week), and these waters will likely help limit any near-term
chance of strengthening. While Genevieve should move north of the
wake tomorrow, its slow movement and fairly large size could help
to maintain upwelling and cooler waters near the core. In a couple
of days, quickly falling SSTs should cause rapid weakening, and
Genevieve is forecast to be a non-convective low in 4 days over
waters near 23C. The new forecast is lower than the previous one,
but it is still above the model consensus at most times before 48
hours.
The hurricane has turned to the right tonight, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 325/9 kt. A slightly slower
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so due to steering from a distant ridge over central
Mexico, taking the core of the hurricane near but just west of the
southern Baja California peninsula during that time. Similar to the
previous cycle, the models have shifted closer to the Baja
California Sur coast but still about 60 n mi offshore, and the NHC
forecast is adjusted in that direction. Thereafter, a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States should cause Genevieve to
turn more toward the west-northwest or northwest, away from the Baja
coast. A small eastward trend is noted at long range as well, and
the official forecast follows that lead.
Key Messages:
1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.
2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.5N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.5N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.4N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 23.1N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 25.1N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 27.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake 
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