趙育成

NHC展望提升到100%
引用1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
continued to become better organized overnight, and it appears
that a tropical depression or storm is forming.  If these
development trends continue, advisories will be issued on this
system this morning.  The low is expected to move generally
west-northwestward, well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next few days.  Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望持續提升至90%

3. A low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to show signs of development. A broad
and elongated closed low pressure system has formed, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to organize
into bands. Although recent satellite-derived wind data indicate
that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, environment
conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday
while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
are beginning to show signs of organization. Conditions appear
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later this weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 01Z亦發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 85.7W TO 11.5N 93.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 86.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1N 86.5W, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN DEL
SUR, NICARAGUA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH A 150006Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS 95E TO BE A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT RECENTLY MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THERE IS SPARSE, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLC AT THIS TIME. 95E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E
WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.