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2011 紅霞 南海發展 西行登陸越南 殘餘進入孟加拉灣

簽到天數: 1314 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-9-14 21:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC21/00Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 127.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90
NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141021Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING, SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE PHILIPPINES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AFTER
MOVING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (1).jpg
20200914.1310.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.13N.125.3E.100pc.jpg
90W_b13.gif
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簽到天數: 1295 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-14 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0600Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
ROTATION, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTH. A
140122Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 140121Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS LARGELY STRAIGHT-
LINE WIND FLOW SURROUNDING AN AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING, SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT POSITION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE TRANSITING OVER THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (18).jpg 20200914.0640.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.1N.126.5E.100pc.jpg
20200914.0426.gw1.89pct89h89v.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.9N.127.9E.56pc.jpg LATEST (19).jpg
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簽到天數: 1295 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-14 04:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-14 04:12 編輯

兩大模式預報(EC,GFS)及整體準確率最高,極有參考價值的EC系集均看好90W將有一定程度的發展
wpac~2.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh6-144.gif ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-120.gif 90W_b13rbtop.png
90W_b13ca.png


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