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22L.Beta 墨西哥灣土生土長氣旋 登陸德州

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-9-16 18:53 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:
22 L
名稱:Beta

014607a6eegyeaeapd2wyn.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 09 16 18
命名日期  :2020 09 19 05
撤編日期  :2020 09 25 22
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :50  kt
( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 :995 百帕
  擾動編號資料    
90L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-20.5N-95W




20200916.1020.goes-16.ir.90L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.20.5N.95W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1 (2) (3).png
two_atl_5d1 (2) (1).png

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s6815711 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-24 02:38 | 顯示全部樓層
目前關於22L.Beta的資訊已交由WPC持續發報
000
WTNT32 KWNH 231458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Advisory Number  24
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL222020
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...BETA CONTINUES ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BRINGING HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 94.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are Flash Flood Watches currently in effect across extreme
southeast Texas... southern Louisiana...and portions of western
Mississippi.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta
was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 94.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph
and this motion is expected to continue through the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued slow weakening is forecast over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected today into
early Thursday across portions of Louisiana and central Mississippi,
with isolated totals of 7 inches possible. Flash and urban flooding
is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller
rivers.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across portions of the
Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians through the end of
the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Wpc Forecaster

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 30.2N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  24/0000Z 30.9N  92.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  24/1200Z 32.1N  91.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  25/0000Z 33.7N  88.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  25/1200Z 35.7N  86.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

20200923.1750.goes-16.vis.2km.22L.BETA.25kts.1007mb.30N.94.6W.pc.jpg 20200923.0816.gw1.89pct89h89v.22L.BETA.25kts.1007mb.29.3N.95.4W.94pc.jpg
goes16_ir_22L_202009231717.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-23 16:42 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC判定已於00Z轉化為溫帶氣旋
AL, 22, 2020092218,   , BEST,   0, 289N,  965W,  25, 1008, TD
AL, 22, 2020092300,   , BEST,   0, 289N,  957W,  25, 1007, EX
AL, 22, 2020092306,   , BEST,   0, 293N,  954W,  25, 1007, EX
20200923.0810.goes-16.ir.22L.BETA.25kts.1007mb.29.3N.95.4W.100pc.jpg 20200923.0505.gpm.89pct89h89v.22L.BETA.25kts.1007mb.28.9N.95.7W.055pc.jpg
GOES08362020267sQQ07G.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-23 00:17 | 顯示全部樓層
已登陸德州並減弱為TD
INIT  22/1500Z 28.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  23/0000Z 29.0N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  23/1200Z 29.6N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  24/0000Z 30.4N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  24/1200Z 31.7N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  25/0000Z 33.1N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/1200Z 34.4N  88.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
150547_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20200922.1540.goes-16.vis.2km.22L.BETA.35kts.1002mb.28.8N.96.8W.pc.jpg
GOES15502020266plO3P3.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-22 00:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-22 04:10 編輯

逐漸減弱中,現位於美國南方近海,稍晚將開始在德州近岸滯留一小段時間後登陸
AL, 22, 2020092112, 03, OFCL,   3, 279N,  957W,  45,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,  150,    0,   40,  100,    0,    0,   0,  55,   0,    ,   0, SRS, 290,   6,           ,  , 12, NEQ,   90,   60,  120,  120,
AL, 22, 2020092118, 01, CARQ,   0, 281N,  960W,  40,  999, TS,  34, NEQ,  150,    0,   40,   80, 1010,  150,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,   X, 300,   6,       BETA, M,
000
WTNT42 KNHC 211451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure
and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center
while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating
onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air
intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent
Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast
(CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface
winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far,
along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb.

Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly
faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06
kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from
Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the
same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just
inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours,
followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta
stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to
the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the
Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or
east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster
forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone
dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keeping
Beta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a
scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which
lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the
more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only
expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will
also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction.
The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more
likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force
winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48
hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been
trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official
intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a
little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 27.9N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 28.3N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
24H  22/1200Z 28.5N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  23/0000Z 28.8N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
48H  23/1200Z 29.1N  95.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
60H  24/0000Z 29.7N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
72H  24/1200Z 30.8N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
96H  25/1200Z 33.5N  89.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

145305_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20200921.1610.goes-16.vis.2km.22L.BETA.45kts.996mb.27.8N.95.5W.pc.jpg
GOES16412020265yHvdJe.jpg 20200921.1250.f17.91pct91h91v.22L.BETA.45kts.997mb.27.8N.95.5W.065pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-9-20 11:31 | 顯示全部樓層
已不再上望更高強度。
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Beta's deep convection has been waning this evening.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that the central
pressure rose several millibars since this morning, but the plane
also still measured surface winds around 50 kt from the SFMR
instrument.  The strongest winds appear to be located near on old
frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center, and
in fact sustained tropical-storm-force winds are just grazing the
coast of south-central Louisiana.

The aircraft fixes indicated that Beta drifted north-northeastward
during the day.  Right now, the cyclone is embedded within weak
steering currents between two areas of high pressure centered near
the Bahamas and west Texas/southern New Mexico.  The western high
pressure area is expected to slide eastward across the Southern
Plains into the southeastern U.S. through Sunday night, which should
force Beta to move slowly toward the west-northwest toward the Texas
coast.  The center is now expected to reach the coast between 48-60
hours, at which point it is likely to recurve around the mid-level
high and move slowly northeastward near or inland of the upper
Texas coast on days 3 and 4.  Because of Beta's drift today, the
new guidance envelope has shifted a bit northward.  For this
forecast cycle, the NHC official forecast split the difference
between the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP Corrected
Consensus guidance.  This keeps the forecast to the east of the
ECMWF, HCCA, and TVCN multi-model consensus during Beta's slow
recurvature.

The air mass behind the old front appears to have won out.  Beta's
circulation is embedded in a dry environment of mid-level
relative humidities around 50 percent, and the air mass could
actually become more stable as Beta moves closer to the Texas
coast.  On top of that, the moderate southwesterly shear is not
expected to diminish much at all.  As a result, the intensity
guidance has continued to trend downward, and the new official
forecast now flatlines Beta's intensity at 50 kt until landfall
soon after 48 hours.  This forecast still lies near the top end of
the guidance envelope, closest to the SHIPS model.  After 48 hours,
weakening is expected assuming Beta's center remains over land, and
it is now expected to become a remnant low over Louisiana by day 5.

While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane continue to
decrease, the Hurricane Watch for portions of the coast of Texas are
being maintained out of an abundance of caution given the
uncertainty in the forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to expand a
long duration rainfall event from the Louisiana coast westward into
southeast Texas on Sunday and northward into the Mid-South by mid
next week. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause
flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are
above normal.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas
and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions
of the northwestern Gulf Coast overnight within the tropical storm
warning area in Louisiana and will spread westward to the Texas
coast Sunday through Monday.  Hurricane-force winds are possible
along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night,
where a hurricane watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 26.8N  92.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 27.1N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 27.4N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 27.9N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  22/0000Z 28.4N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  22/1200Z 28.9N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
72H  23/0000Z 29.3N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
96H  24/0000Z 30.2N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  25/0000Z 31.4N  92.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

025745_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES032120202647rYDVo.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-20 01:46 | 顯示全部樓層
逐漸增強,15Z定強50節,持續上望C1
INIT  19/1500Z 26.6N  92.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 26.9N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  20/1200Z 27.1N  93.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  21/0000Z 27.5N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  21/1200Z 27.8N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  22/0000Z 28.2N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  22/1200Z 28.6N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
96H  23/1200Z 29.5N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  24/1200Z 30.5N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
205430_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20200919.1710.goes-16.vis.2km.22L.BETA.50kts.995mb.26.5N.92.4W.pc.jpg
LATEST.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-19 05:37 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z升格TS,命名Beta,並上望一級颶風65KT
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical
Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt.  Based on
this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial
intensity of 35 kt.  Although the system is now a tropical storm,
satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming
elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of
Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8.  This motion should continue
for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to
upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico.  After that
time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a
mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an
already present low-level ridge.  This ridge should act as a Beta
blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf
coast.  Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another
mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and
this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the
northeast.  One change in the track guidance since the previous
forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward
motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h.  The
latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it
is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF.  There is also a chance that
Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts
out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track
forecast.  So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact
forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5.

The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a
little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta.
However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment
that would hamper strengthening.  The intensity guidance for the
most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity
below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts
a peak intensity near 65 kt.  The new intensity forecast is again
unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1.  Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane,
while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.

2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.

3.  While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout
the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or
Saturday.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 24.3N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  19/0600Z 25.1N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 25.9N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  20/0600Z 26.1N  93.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  20/1800Z 26.3N  94.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  21/0600Z 26.5N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  21/1800Z 26.8N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  22/1800Z 27.5N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 28.5N  96.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

205430_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20200918.2100.goes-16.vis.2km.22L.TWENTY-TWO.35kts.1005mb.23.9N.93.3W.pc.jpg
20200918.1332.f17.91pct91h91v.22L.TWENTY-TWO.30kts.1005mb.23.5N.94.1W.070pc.jpg GOES21312020262tj6aWJ.jpg
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