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Heigo|2020-10-4 17:27
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本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-10-4 17:42 編輯
JTWC TCFA
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY
201 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DESPITE THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 040404Z
AMSR2 36GHZ AND 040646Z SSMIS 37GHZ RETRIEVALS. FURTHERMORE, DATA
FROM A 032352Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FURTHER DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGER, 20-30 KTS WINDS
DISPLACED > 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 90W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS PREDICT
A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET CALCULATE
WESTWARD SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
BIFURCATE, SUGGESTING BOTH MODELS CONSIDER THE DISPARATE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THIS DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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