老農民版夜神月

NHC15Z升格TD25L,初報上望45KT不封頂

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021456
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated
with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have
become significantly better organized since yesterday, with
convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud
motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five at this time.  The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt
based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to
provide a better intensity estimate.  Sea surface temperatures are
very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for
at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become
a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula
tomorrow.  The main impediment to strengthening over the next few
days should be the interaction with land.  Given the uncertainties
about how far offshore the center will be over the next several
days, the official intensity forecast is conservative.

Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the
initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain.  For the
next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to
north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high
pressure area.  This would take the center near or over the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  After about 48 hours, the steering
currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in
the track models.  At this time, it appears the cyclone should move
slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in
response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.  The
official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and
simple model consensus predictions.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could
result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.1N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 18.9N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 19.8N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 20.6N  87.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
48H  04/1200Z 21.4N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
60H  05/0000Z 22.0N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 22.0N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 21.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 21.5N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

老農民版夜神月

FWC—N02/0100Z發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 020100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 83.1W TO 21.2N 86.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 83.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS.
2.A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BCOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 030100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70%/80%

1. A broad area of low pressure has developed over the west-central
Caribbean Sea just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras.
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are slowly
becoming better organized, and a NOAA buoy northeast of the center
has reported winds to near tropical storm force during the past few
hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or
Saturday, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters
of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.  
Development will become less likely if the system moves over the
Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains,
with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico,
Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and
interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.