JTWC TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 125.4W TO 16.2N 128.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 125.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 125.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1041 NM WESTSOUTH-WEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080546Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96E WILL
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NVGM SHOWS 96E TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
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