(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191335Z METOP-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN OVERALL LACK OF CIRCULATION AND
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-
31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
A tropical low (08U) was located about 400 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu at 0800 WST Tuesday 19 January. The system is forecast to strengthen in a favourable environment, with the ratings increasing to Moderate for Wednesday and High for Thursday. The system is expected to track generally southwest, staying offshore from the west Kimberley coast, before approaching the PIlbara coast on Friday or Saturday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High
