dom

JTWC1500Z發佈TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 179.5E TO 22.6S 179.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 081430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091500Z.//
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dom

JTWC12Z升格TD

92P INVEST 210208 1200 16.9S 179.8E SHEM 25 1003

周子堯@FB

JTWC還是在12Z升評Medium，型態持續整合轉好，惟中心仍稍顯狹長，預估未來24-48小時是成旋關鍵

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING
ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1200Z將其評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING
ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC對其的反應明顯較FMS冷淡許多，06Z仍維持評級Low

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.      
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 178.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 179.1E, APPROXIMATELY
185 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080131Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW ELONGATED AND
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

dom

FMS開始發報，上望澳式C1

dom

FMS把未來24至48小時發展機會提高為中至高，數值則認為沒有太大發展空間

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 178.9W AT 071800UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. CONVECTION IS PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC HOWEVER ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.  SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.  POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE AND INCREASING MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

09F目前於斐濟北方近海滯留中,將逐漸開始加速向南移動,於24H內通過斐濟群島
其雲系當前仍然處於十分散亂的狀態,FMS預估其未來24-48小時有低至中的發展機會