(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2S 179.1W, APPROXIMATELY 330NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENT ZONE WITH DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH
AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD IN 24-36 HOURS APPROXIMATELY 200NM SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
