1111 南瑪都轉熱低解除颱風警報中南部豪雨特報

開梅 · 2011-8-22 03:42

多重LLCC發展的結果是蘊釀期非常的久，而等待了那麼多天，那個系統逐漸有發展，未來三天值得特別注意。

ktf · 2011-8-22 03:41

96目前風場看起來已經有部分出現20kts以上的風力
不過還不太夠~可能還需要等到明天白天看看對流能 ...
howard2639 發表於 2011-8-22 00:46

EC預測互旋的不是95W,算新發展出來的系統,新一報依然互旋的誇張
現在完全就看這預測的系統會如何發展

這報EC誇張的是又預測擦過山東半島而且96w也一起上去
要是發生就真的非常罕見了,少有颱風如此靠近山東半島
米雷有登陸過,梅花又很靠近,再來的話那就罕見了

howard2639 · 2011-8-22 00:46

本帖最後由 howard2639 於 2011-8-22 03:24 編輯

圖又掛了啦！其實96現在已有輕度颱風的氣勢，窩度明顯，對流也很強，只要目前中心不登陸菲律賓，除了締造驚 ...
張琦發表於 2011-8-22 00:10

96目前風場看起來已經有部分出現20kts以上的風力
不過還不太夠~可能還需要等到明天白天看看對流能不能夠更好!
97W目前已經被96W合併!依JTWC預測未來高壓減弱可能偏北移動
持續關注EC及各國數值預報的路徑變化!取決點還是在高壓的身上!!!
可能需要注意的就是未來是否與95W造成互旋的情況~

台灣時間8/21日下午15時EC預測圖

台灣時間8/22日凌晨03時EC預測圖最新!!!

目前看來在2擾動尚未形成颱風之前,對於強度以及互相影響的情況
還無法有比較確實的路徑!!!

張琦 · 2011-8-22 00:10

圖又掛了啦！其實96現在已有輕度颱風的氣勢，窩度明顯，對流也很強，只要目前中心不登陸菲律賓，除了締造驚人的輻散輻合外，海水也不易被翻攪，加上目前緯度非常低，96以後可能會有不錯的發展，當然，東北方的95和97如果沒有發展起來，更是錦上添花。[現在的擾動定位圖怎麼一次只能顯示一個擾動啊？好不方便啊！畢竟快開學了，沒那麼多時間追風。]

夢翔 · 2011-8-21 21:57

本帖最後由夢翔於 2011-8-21 22:05 編輯

96W TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 211400MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 128.3E TO 18.7N 129.4EWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 211330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 12.9N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT15 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOIUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITEIMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OFTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED ANDDEEPENED. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 211054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOWCHANNEL EMERGED, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS INAN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVELPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. DUE TO THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTHE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLEDBY 221400Z.//NNNN