dom

JTWC評級Low

     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S
91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
070706Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND EAST OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF LOW (10-15KTS) VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

dom

BoM編號24U, 評級Moderate

Another tropical low (24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move east with little development on Thursday before taking a southeast track from Friday where it may enter the region. The system will continue tracking southeast over the weekend and may pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands while intensifying. There is a moderate chance it develops into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and could be near the Islands. Even if it remains a tropical low, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands may experience increased squally shower and thunderstorm activity during this time with some gusty winds.
Thankfully, there are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday:Moderate