簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-12-10 05:20
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JTWC發布TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S 155.8E TO 12.3S 157.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY
250NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102130Z.
//
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