周子堯@FB

JTWC 評級Low

       (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. A 120233Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS 90W STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-
30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.