(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE CIRCULATION WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
HIDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE CIRCULATION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N
134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH DISPLACED AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 240052Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VWS (5-10KTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WEAK EASTERN
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
