周子堯@FB

基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 W
擾動編號日期：2024 年 07 月 25 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
95W INVEST 240725 0000 6.8N 135.4E WPAC 15 1007

周子堯@FB

JTWC06Z評級Low，受05W影響、流出不佳、風切稍大，數值普遍不看好成颱

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 58.5 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD SLIGHTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE FLARING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95W WITH WARM (29-30C) SST,
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO THE DOMINANT PRESENCE OF TY 05W, AND LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POOR
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT CYCLE OF 95W WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING
DISTURBANCE STRENGTH BY TAU 60 WHILE ECMWF LEANING MORE ON THE LOWER
SIDE WITH JUST TROUGHING, BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE WITH ALL AGREEING ON A
RELATIVELY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO 05W. GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES
SHOW STRONG MEMBER SIGNATURES THROUGHOUT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

林帥君

我覺得他會變成颱風
就像當初 凱米  一個季風帶的低壓能變成強烈颱風
也超乎大家預期

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.3N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 43 NM SOUTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 252059Z
89GHZ SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION AS WELL AS
FORMATIVE AND FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN PORTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95W WITH WARM (29-30C) SST,
A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 95W IS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND A PREDOMINANTLY LOW (10-15KTS) VWS.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
OF 95W WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.