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s813141|2011-9-27 14:28
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本帖最後由 s813141 於 2011-9-27 14:30 編輯
TCFA了
WTPN23 PGTW 270600MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 138.4E TO 22.1N 135.8EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 18.6N 138.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 139.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 262059Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), BUT HAS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO THE EAST (165E) OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280600Z.//NNNN |
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