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c789654|2011-10-5 17:39
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WTPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 107.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.7N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.3N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 107.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TD 22W
WEAKENING OVER WATER, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 050204Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 050000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 22W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF GREATER
SUBSIDENCE AND LESS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 29
DEGREES. THE 050000Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS DIMINISHED OUTFLOW. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST CONTINUES TO DRIVE TD
22W TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER WATER
DUE TO GREATER SHEAR, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER LAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
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