1211 海葵進入華中地區減弱為熱低壓

wptseng · 2012-8-2 03:55

再過1天,西太平洋就有3個颱風了~
高壓弱之後向日本的機率應大些吧?!

熱帯低気圧
平成24年08月02日04時05分発表
<02日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域小笠原近海
中心位置北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 146度20分(146.3度)
進行方向、速さほとんど停滞
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<03日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域小笠原近海
予報円の中心北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 142度20分(142.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

龍王 · 2012-8-2 07:21

要有3颱
也要看丹瑞跟蘇拉能不能撐到那時候

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-8-2 08:50

本帖最後由 HKWCFC網主於 2012-8-2 08:52 編輯

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE
CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM
1003-1005 MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

看來是蘇拉的尾巴,
但走西北西??
路徑卻是丹瑞的

Zeel · 2012-8-2 08:51

本帖最後由 Zeel 於 2012-8-2 08:52 編輯

TCFA了。目前差不多以每小時7knots的速度往西北西前進。
不知道會不會補上蘇拉前進後留下的空間？

WTPN21 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.3N 145.9E TO 24.2N 140.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 012200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE
CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM
1003-1005 MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022230Z.//

桑達 · 2012-8-2 08:56

本帖最後由 ... 於 2012-8-2 10:30 編輯

翻譯HKWCFC網主的那篇文用GOOGLE對流區域以前位於近22.3N 145.5E，23.4N 145.3E附近，約230海裡，華東東南IWO，給日本。 ANIMATED多光譜衛星圖像（MSI），表示一個有組織的，暴露出來，對稱的低電平環流中心（LLCC）流離失所的曲線帶以西120海裡深對流。微星也顯示了強烈的大面積強收斂西風表面相關的對流流。最近在南部的半圈船舶觀測表明 22-26節從海平面氣壓值收斂西風 1003-1005 MB的。 91GHZ一個012036Z SSMIS形象也表示略有具有定義良好的淺拉長，但迅速發展的LLCC 對流束帶。最近總降水量圖像顯示定義LLCC一個鞏固，深層滋潤信封。最近的動畫水汽圖像描繪增向極地 INTO熱帶對流層上部槽和有利外流赤道流出;然而，好流出抵消有點垂直風切變強（30-40節）西北（簡稱VWS）。動態模型表明，該系統將VWS的迅速發展在接下來的24小時減少。系統預計要跟踪向西，朝沖繩。最高持續風速為估計在18至23海裡。據估計最低海平面氣壓近1002 MB。 A的發展潛力主要熱帶氣旋在未來24小時內升級到高。