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HKWCFC網主|2012-8-4 22:01
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JTWC TCFA
個人認為90W對中港台無影響
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.2N
162.6EIMATELE, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 162.9E, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040828Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS
PERIPHERAL RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC WAS
PRODUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT
BUILT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TUTT
CELL IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND THEREFORE NOT
VERTICALLY STACKED ANYMORE. THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTION
(041800Z) SHOWS A PLUS THREE DEGREE CELSIUS WARM CORE ANOMALY NEAR
2,000 KILOMETERS (KM) WITH A BUILDING PLUS ONE DEGREE CELSIUS WARM
CORE ANOMALY REACHING UP TO 10 KM. THE TREND IN THE AMSU CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL DERIVED PHASE SPACE OUTPUT INDICATES A CURRENT
SUBTROPICAL, SHALLOW WARM CORE SYSTEM WHICH MAY TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL, DEEPER WARM CORE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE LLCC CLOSING
ITSELF OFF IN A COCOON OF MOISTURE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
(25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH A
POCKET OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VWS OVER THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD DRIFT IN A GENERAL POLEWARD DIRECTION AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IT. ADDITIONALLY
A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH IT POLEWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED FURTHER EAST
CURRENTLY PROVIDES THE ONLY EXHAUST MECHANISM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
041100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO INDICATIONS OF A CONTINUED
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. |
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