THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070802Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 071128Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES THAT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD, THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING. THE SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO REVEALS STRONGER EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODEL FORECAST FIELDS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN BOTH ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
