1309 燕子即將登陸海南島

J18 · 2013-7-27 09:55

今天早上91w的狀況變得不太樂觀
一.中心碰到明答那峨島陸地
二.附近風切增強
兩項因素導致結構轉差
故JTWC將他降級為LOW

ivanhui · 2013-7-27 01:16

不能以過往的戰績為根據，畢竟不是每一個台風倒模般一模一樣，以目前的大氣狀態來說，依然覺得副高狀態偏強，要大幅向北，難度稍高。

millerkit31 · 2013-7-27 01:08

衛星雲圖來看,這TD的雲不算得上很集中，分佈較廣，雲系旋轉也暫時不太明顯,相信仍須時間加強整合。長遠來說,只要不接觸太多菲律賓陸地，未來相信能繼續增強，畢竟TD身處區域的是高水溫、偏低風切、良好低空幅合，有利熱帶氣旋的加強。
路向方面，副高在今早開始擺脫近幾天的頹勢，開始重整旗鼓，至少副高環流已較前兩天完整，副高現時中心位於沖繩附近，過去略有西伸,500-850層，可見其西緣約在東經116度附近，預料TD短期內將沿副高南側向西北偏西至西北移動,若橫過菲中群島,在群島效應下，有利其加強；反之，若副高位置偏北或不太強，TD將走偏北，趨向呂宋，屆時呂宋高山將抑制其加強。不過，鑑於很多氣象台皆預料副高未來開始會加強西伸，故此，勿論TD走那條路線，TD入南海的機會都偏高，分別只在於強度吧了；
相信待TD進入南海後，其路徑才會明朗化；若屆時副高偏強，TD將西走，大致趨向海南；如副高維持近幾日形態，TD就會行至東經115度左右便北折，趨向華南或廣東東部；如偏弱或位置太偏北，就不排除會在台灣海峽附近北上，惟走此路徑的機會較低。

ivanhui · 2013-7-26 18:53

好有發展潛力~ 以目前大氣的環境配置，多數移向海南島？

J18 · 2013-7-26 18:19

氣象局升格為熱低壓
並預測未來會到南海
剛剛看了林嘉愷的氣象播報:
他說這個系統到南海後是否北上影響台灣
還是個未知數因為目前到下星期還要很久
所以要多加觀察!

我們就繼續看下去吧!

禾愛糖 · 2013-7-26 14:18

本帖最後由阿隆於 2013-7-26 15:23 編輯

MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 252308Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES BROKEN AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND
POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. A 260108Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-
15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Medium已幫補上圖。