阿隆

krichard2011

整個對流大爆發 螺旋性也頗佳
底層也有開始建立的趨勢
於剛剛升格TD 08E


JTWC 仍維持TCFA
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.2W, APPROXIMATELY 726 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 031117Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, ALBEIT DEVELOPING, CENTRAL OVERCAST FEATURE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES HAVE INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

他的水氣似乎被Gil霸占不排除未來90E可能會被Gil併吞
目前對流發展有減弱的趨勢
況且他目前的輻合值與輻散值偏弱
NHC剛剛降評Medium(40%)
而JTWC目前還維持TCFA狀態 不知道等等會不會被取消
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DECREASED OVERNIGHT...AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR.  THIS
SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

krichard2011

這隻也很有潛力
早上才剛看到就已經TCFA了
且與Gil相當靠近
不排除與Gil互旋 真的發展起來的話
後期應該很有看頭 最近的東太真是源源不絕
多頻掃描還可以同時看到Gil




REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.8N
107.2W, IS NOW LOCATED AT 11.4N 108.5W, APPROXIMATELY 460NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
BROKEN FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301517Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC AND IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.