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krichard2011|2013-8-16 09:45
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-8-16 09:47 編輯
JTWC已發TCFACPHC也上調評價到80%
結構不錯 螺旋性佳
不排除有發展機會
也不排除發展後有可能會與90C有任何互動...
目前看起來跨洋機會頗高
------------------------以下為JTWC的資料------------------------
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 280 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 168.9W TO 12.1N 178.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 169.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 169.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1015 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING TOWARDS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS SUPPORTING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. BASED ON THE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICYCLONE AXIS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) THROUGH THE REGION SURROUNDING THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
------------------------以下為CPHC的資料------------------------2. An area of low pressure about 1175 miles southwest of Kauai has shown signs of increased organization over the past six hours, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity. Conditions are conducive for development as this feature moves west near 20 mph. This system has a high chance, 80 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
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