t02436

路徑出來了~上看Cat.1

這有抄襲GFS的嫌疑XD

龍王

總覺的這個熱帶性低氣壓很象在等天兔減弱似的 之前就說有增強為颱風的現象 但到現在還未成颱

sbf258

见98w这涡度够深够广，跟＂天兔＂快一样大了，说不定98w会比＂天兔＂更猛！

t02436

TCFA!


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING. A 191136Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT HAVE NOT YET FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC. THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATES WEAKER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSING OFF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Meow

熱帯低気圧
平成25年09月19日16時30分 発表

<19日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 148度30分(148.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<20日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 147度50分(147.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

sh991016

日本氣象廳發GW囉!!~

Meow

終於成為熱低了



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.

martin191919

JTWC  MEDIUM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.1N 148.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A WEAKER
LLCC WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BROAD AND
ELONGATED, LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPES A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.