1321 蝴蝶橫掃中南半島入孟灣再起?

麻友飯 · 2013-9-26 16:32

TCFA
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS EMBEDDED IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE PERENIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMROVED UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

millerkit31 · 2013-9-26 13:10

雲圖中看到位於15N,118E明顯有雲在轉動，香港天文台亦云該低壓有可能於未來一兩天發展成熱帶氣旋！預計該低壓發展後大致向西北西移動，移近海南附近海域。

martin191919 · 2013-9-26 07:03

JTWC: MEDIUM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
116.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDS OF BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT
251347Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE
EAST-WEST AXIS WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY
BROADLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2013-9-25 22:07

Gale Warning!

millerkit31 · 2013-9-25 19:50

香港天文台天氣圖亦已標示為低壓區了，雲圖所見，該低壓具明顯的旋轉，若及後對流持續及繼續旋轉的話，不排除能加強成熱低。然而，唉!中國內陸那令人討厭的涼性高壓開始活躍，華南更即將迎接入秋以來第一道冷鋒，在天氣形態轉為秋天格局的情況下，本人對及後進南海或於南海生成的熱帶氣旋，能到達華南沿岸，抱不樂觀態度，因高壓常把台風壓在低緯位置。

J18 · 2013-9-25 17:28

日本將他升格為熱低!

t02436 · 2013-9-25 16:04

已發LOW!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) AND DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A 250146Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED AREA OF TROUGHING IN THE REGION WITH NO REAL DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY BROADLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.