簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-1-13 09:00
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2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
145.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER NORTHERN QUADRANTS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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