t02436

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號  : 17 U ( 18 P )
   名稱  : Nathan


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 03 月 09 日 07 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 03 月 10 日 21 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 03 月 29 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 昆士蘭州 約克角半島
                                                      北領地


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：90  kts ( CAT.2 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：90  kts ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：963  百帕

  討論帖圖片  
95P.INVEST.15kts.996mb.13S.150E

以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

zjk369

t02436

JTWC直接評級Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 150.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A 091836Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30C
ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

zjk369

全球氣候變化真的要改變,否則後果很嚴重

t02436

JTWC發佈TCFA




BoM編號17U
暫時上望澳式C2

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0214 UTC 10/03/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 149.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  10/0600: 12.7S 149.1E:     070 [135]:  030  [050]:  998
+12:  10/1200: 12.8S 148.6E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  996
+18:  10/1800: 13.0S 148.3E:     095 [180]:  030  [055]:  996
+24:  11/0000: 13.2S 148.0E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  995
+36:  11/1200: 13.6S 147.5E:     110 [205]:  035  [065]:  992
+48:  12/0000: 13.8S 146.9E:     120 [220]:  050  [095]:  986
+60:  12/1200: 13.6S 146.6E:     140 [260]:  055  [100]:  982
+72:  13/0000: 13.2S 146.8E:     160 [295]:  055  [100]:  981
+96:  14/0000: 13.1S 148.4E:     230 [430]:  080  [145]:  964
+120: 15/0000: 13.4S 150.8E:     320 [590]:  095  [170]:  950
REMARKS:
The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea has developed significantly in the
last 24 hours with convection solidly building near the estimated low level
centre overnight. Easterly vertical wind shear across the low appears to be
confining most of the convection on the westward side of the system. Low level
cloud lines also appear to have improved in the last 24 hours.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.4 degree
wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT are 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on
DT as it appears fairly clear. The descending ASCAT image at 2340UTC indicates
an area of gales in the northeast quadrant. The location accuracy of the system
is rated as poor, though there was a 37GHz SSMI-S microwave image at 2147UTC
that provided some guidance towards the location of the low level centre.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction
over the next couple under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across
the central Coral Sea. On Thursday, the mid-level ridge should weaken with the
approach of a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia, which should
slow the westwards movement of the system.

The tropical low should continue to intensify into Wednesday as it moves into a
more favourable environment for further development with lowering vertical wind
shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28-29 degrees. At this stage, the
low is rated as a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone during
Wednesday.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

風場掃描30KT

CX723-A330

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Nathan has formed in the NW Coral Sea.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Coen to Cape Tribulation.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 10:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South, 148.6 degrees East , 435 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 450 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville .
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

升格為澳式cat.1
命名為Nathan
上望澳式cat.3

krichard2011

從紅外線色調強化來看 雖然看似對流亂爆
不過疑似有開始建立起眼牆的趨勢
但附近風切仍偏強 似乎受到高層東風的影響
高層雲系有疑似被壓扁並往西吹的跡象
這個問題還有待克服

CX723-A330

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Nathan intensifies to a category 2

BoM升格為澳式C2