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adrian|2015-4-30 23:36
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-5-1 00:06 編輯
Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 150.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 301122Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER SHOWS THE BROAD LLCC WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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