t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A
190210Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS THE LIMITED
CONVECTION WEST OF A WEAK LLCC. A 190211Z SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS THAT THE ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH HAVE
STARTED TO WRAP ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT;
HOWEVER, LIMITED TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING
SUSTAINED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

甜心

:)由於中央氣象局等氣象單位預測下週一開始太平洋高壓會有增強西伸的情形所以預測它不會直接影響我們臺灣地區天氣，不過因為後期受到太平洋高壓牽引它預估將延著高壓勢力邊緣北上影響港澳地區。

adrian

中 國 東 南 部 上 空 的 反 氣 旋 會 在 今 明 兩 日 逐 漸 減 弱 。 而 位 於 南 海 中 部 的 一 個 廣 闊 低 壓 區 會 在 未 來 數 天 逐 漸 增 強 並 向 北 移 動 ， 在 下 週 初 為 華 南 沿 岸 地 區 帶 來 狂 風 驟 雨 。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 113.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN AN 181811Z AMSU
PASS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
OUTFLOW TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS SUPPORTING
RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE BROAD
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.