s6815711

6年前的艾陶颱風 正好是著名的巨人雲圖的頭部 和這次的生成位置相近

s6815711

艾陶正式形成 緯度偏高 壽命應該不長

blackcat

GW! 秋天第一炮

熱帯低気圧
平成27年09月06日16時10分 発表

<06日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        日本の南
中心位置        北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
        東経 139度10分(139.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<07日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯 21度40分(21.7度)
        東経 137度50分(137.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

ktf

92W受到槽前西南風幫助,開始轉起來
92W發展的越明顯,對即將南下的東北季風,南下程度越大
在日本南方海面時會使的台灣持續吹著東北風(雖然風力還不會多強)
不過露點可能被壓到20度左右

北部夜晚清晨會是秋天的體感,中南部平原輻冷也會逐漸有感(日夜溫差拉大)

blackcat

默默的TCFA @@
EC已看好成旋
未來可能會和奇羅互動

t02436

晚間風場北側掃出部分20節風力




JMA 12Z升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.


JTWC持續分析T1.0

TPPN11 PGTW 051411

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF GUAM)
B. 05/1332Z
C. 17.85N
D. 139.92E
E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   UEHARA

Alexchow

已評為Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 141.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050410Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 050015Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK,
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
OVERALL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BROAD SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.