簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-9-20 04:27
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JTWC提升評級至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 150.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191131Z
METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SURFACE WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY AS EVIDENCED IN THE 191045Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, HOWEVER, PERIPHERAL
SURFACE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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