簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-9-17 15:33
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JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4N 162.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING TURNING OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WHILE A 170332Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, A
162330Z RSCAT SHOWS A CLEAR CIRCULATION WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW TO MODERATE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS, HOWEVER, DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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