ben811018

型態變得不錯
範圍也不小
GFS最新一報顯示要開始進一步發展了

alu

這隻不會是從中太跑來的08C減弱後又增強的吧？JTWC也很奇怪接近東經140度的熱帶性低氣壓沒有擾動編號它後面的低氣壓卻有擾動編號？這又讓我看不懂到底是JTWC還是日本搞錯:funk:

甜心

:)這隻巨大的擾動低壓寶寶整體型態還不錯才剛誕生不久就已經有螺旋形態出現，

不過他週遭的大氣環境有點差風切很大後期發展先觀察一段時間看看等過幾天再來討論才會比較明朗。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9N 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MONSOON
TROUGHING WITH EMBEDDED LOOSELY ORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A
102328Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE TROUGHING, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL WITH MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE
FLOW OVERHEAD AND A SHARP GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA預測明天晚上之前升熱帶低壓。