t02436

JMA命名烟花

台風第26号 (インファ)
平成27年11月17日22時05分 発表

<17日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 4度55分(4.9度)
東経 159度35分(159.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 110km(60NM)

<18日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 5度35分(5.6度)
東経 157度50分(157.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<18日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 6度25分(6.4度)
東経 155度55分(155.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)

<19日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        トラック諸島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 8度00分(8.0度)
東経 152度10分(152.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

<20日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 148度35分(148.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 350km(190NM)

甜心

:o95w低壓過去一天強度小有增強因為西邊洋面有水氣東移供應它足夠能量供給它硬撐增強為27wGW熱低壓，

未來前仍有一段較堅困的環境要面對只要能盡快撐過東經150度進入環境較好的菲東海面要有更亮眼的成績不是不可能目前得先面對上方的強風切區域。

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年11月17日16時00分 発表

<17日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 4度30分(4.5度)
東経 161度25分(161.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<18日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 5度40分(5.7度)
東経 157度00分(157.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

JTWC 06Z速報升格TS

27W TWENTYSEVE 151117 0600   4.1N  161.6E WPAC   35   996

Meow

JMA同步升格並發佈[W]。



WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.1N 162.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JMA00Z升格熱帶低壓，認為中心風速已達30節，發出W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.1N 162.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JTWC速報升格27W




這對流爆的有點猛烈...


底層也有點厚實....


首報路徑預測圖
暫時上望C2

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 168.1E TO 7.8N 160.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 167.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
166.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH
OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160445Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
REVEALS A MORE PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS AND
ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170800Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 168.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM. A 160348Z 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH AND EAST
PERIPHERIES. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE PRONOUNCED
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

JMA預測24小時之內增強為熱帶性低氣壓