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06P.Ula 跨年熱帶氣旋 二次巔峰後終轉化

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2015-12-30 02:07 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:06 P ( 05 F )
名稱:Ula
Ula 2016-01-10 0205Z.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 12 30 00
JTWC升格日期:2015 12 30 14
命名日期  :2015 12 30 15
撤編日期  :2016 01 14 12
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):100 kt ( CAT.4 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):120 kt ( CAT.4 )
紐西蘭氣象局(MSNZ):85 kt ( CAT.3 )
海平面最低氣壓   :945 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
TWTYBBS_06P(05F)_ULA_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  討論帖圖片  
95P.INVEST.30kts.998mb.10.2S.168.0W

20151229.1750.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.95PINVEST.25kts-1000mb-87S-1715W.100pc (1).jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、MSNZ、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 贊一個!

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劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-30 06:27 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-30 10:21 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2015-12-30 15:37 | 顯示全部樓層
這結構幾乎是好的沒話說....
JTWC也是一口氣將強度提升到 45KT
20151230.0649.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v.95PINVEST.45kts-989mb-120S-1665W.69pc.jpg
95P.INVEST.45kts-989mb-12.0S-166.5W
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-30 16:22 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS升格一級熱帶氣旋並命名Ula
** WTPS01 NFFN 300900 ***
Gale Warning 029 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 2115 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [993HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0
SOUTH 167.2 WEST AT 300700 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.0S 167.2W.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
                  WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
                  WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
                  WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
                  WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.2S 167.8W AT 301900 UTC.
              AND NEAR 15.6S 168.8W AT 310700 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV
DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-1 11:13 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 18Z升格三級強烈熱帶氣旋
00Z維持65節評價
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1202 UTC.

TRTROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.2SOUTH 169.7 WEST AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
            ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 17.1S 171.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 17.8S 174.0W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 18.1S 176.1W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 18.5S 178.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 010000UTC.  

65660.gif

JTWC 18Z評價90節,升格C2
巔峰上望110節
sh0616.gif

20160101.0252.goes-15.vis.1km.06P.ULA.90kts.956mb.16.7S.170.4W.100pc.jpg

點評

昨天一度開眼  發表於 2016-1-1 11:17
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-1-1 11:16 | 顯示全部樓層


Ula的核心很細小,和2014年南印的Colin一樣細小.

Ula的風眼開啟維持較短. 最後只有停在Cat.2
2016SH06_4KMIRIMG_201512312022.GIF



wg10ssht.GIF


昨天風切都在轉小,今天Ula附近的風切突然增強至20kt左右.
強度已經受到影響.

2016SH06_OHCNFCST_201512311800.GIF


也準備移出高OHC..除了水汽沒問題外. 上面這兩個都失利.
恐怕巔峰已過
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2016-1-2 17:14 | 顯示全部樓層
:o Ula旋風目前中心逐漸進入高緯海域發展受限,因為接下來的海域不利它發展強度將逐漸減弱。
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