krichard2011

這次的巔峰 FMS 認定比上一次的巔峰還要強
強度來到 80KT 對流雖然顯得稍弱
但風眼清晰 也算是一個小鋼炮系統

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A41 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 090724 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.7S 172.9E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST  AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
                                    
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
     
         AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE WELL DEFINED IN PAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

Meow

2016年1月9日斐濟西方的強烈熱帶氣旋Ula


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ula_2016-01-09_0230Z.jpg

alu

這個旋風生命力也太強了，兩度減弱後又增強，還有超越之前的趨勢就算在西太也是難得有一個這種形式的颱風:funk:

蜜露

Ula的強度重新增強. 就是之前GFS報的二次巔峰

幾個小時前底層是好的.
GMI的最近顯示一張破的

t02436

命名後第十天，前幾天通過斐濟南方海域之後二度增強，12Z重回三級強烈熱帶氣旋

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A38 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 081347 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 975HPA CATERGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 174.0E AT 081200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
      
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
      
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. EYE VISIBLE IN IR IMAGERY IN PAST 5 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH 0W EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.7S 173.3E MOV WSW AT 03KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 172.4E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.8S 171.4E MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 20.9S 170.6E MOV lSW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 082000 UTC.

JTWC 12Z評價65節，一樣重新回到C1

甜心

:o Ula旋風目前中心逐漸進入高緯海域發展受限，因為接下來的海域不利它發展強度將逐漸減弱。

蜜露

Ula的核心很細小,和2014年南印的Colin一樣細小.

Ula的風眼開啟維持較短. 最後只有停在Cat.2







昨天風切都在轉小,今天Ula附近的風切突然增強至20kt左右.
強度已經受到影響.




也準備移出高OHC..除了水汽沒問題外. 上面這兩個都失利.
恐怕巔峰已過

t02436

FMS 18Z升格三級強烈熱帶氣旋
00Z維持65節評價

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1202 UTC.

TRTROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.2SOUTH 169.7 WEST AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
            ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 17.1S 171.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 17.8S 174.0W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 18.1S 176.1W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 18.5S 178.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 010000UTC.  

JTWC 18Z評價90節，升格C2
巔峰上望110節