MFR與JTWC皆在00Z報發出FW

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (DAYA)

2.A POSITION 2016/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 56.3 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX
DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 480 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/12 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/02/13 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2016/02/13 12 UTC: 41.4 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ON IR IMAGERY. MW (AMSU-B OF
1805Z, 2220Z AND SSMI AT 2208Z) REVEAL AN EXPOSED CENTER. PREVIOUS
VERY PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT SOME MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IS
STILL EXISTING WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME REALLY UNFAVOURABLE WITH COOL SST
AND STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WESTERLIES. THE
POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND LIKELY WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS.

THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE IS STEERED BY
BOTH A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA IN
THE EAST. UNDER THE JOINED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
STRUCTURES, THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS STILL FORECAST SIMILAR
SOUTH-EAST TRACKS WITH MORE SPREAD THIS WEEK-END DUE TO DIFFERENT
FOREWARD MOTION .

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO FQIO20 BULLETIN ISSUED
TWICE DAILY (06 UTC AND 18 UTC) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.=

MFR 18Z命名Daya，約莫剩下一天的時間可以發展。

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (DAYA)

2.A POSITION 2016/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE
DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/11 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/02/12 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/02/12 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2016/02/13 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2016/02/13 12 UTC: 39.3 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT ON IMPROVING WITH
A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN PART, BUT DURING THE LAST HOURS, DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PART SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (CIRRUS ARCUS). THE GCOM 2140Z
DATA SHOW A TILT BETWEEN LOW LEVEL AND CONVECTION, AND ON THE LAST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS CLEARLY WEAKENING NEAR THE
CENTER.
1740Z ASCAT DATA CORROBORATE EXISTING GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE SYSTEM SEEM TO HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY, AND SHOULD
BECOME TO WEAKEN SLOWLY TODAY BETWEEN A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT NOT
YET DEADLY, AND A PERSISTENT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLARWARD.

THE PARABOLIC TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY BOTH A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE SOUTH-WEST AND A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA IN THE EAST. UNDER THE
JOINED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES, THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS STILL FORECAST SIMILAR TRACKS BUT WITH A LIGHT DISPERSION
INCREASE DUE TO SOME ANALYSIS DIFFERENCES. THUS, THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY TURNED SOUTH-EASTWARD AND BEGAN TO ACCELERATE. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME REALLY UNFAVOURABLE UP TO THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER LOW ENERGETIC WATERS AND
SHIFTS GRADUALLY UNDER A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET. IT
SHOULD THEN BEGIN A RELATIVELY QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE
MERGING WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW SATURDAY.=

JTWC 12Z升格10S，巔峰上望50節


MFR 12Z一樣看好命名

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  4

2.A POSITION 2016/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 52.0 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO
DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/11 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/02/11 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/02/12 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/02/12 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2016/02/13 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2016/02/13 12 UTC: 39.1 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT ON IMPROVING WITH
A CURVED BAND WRAPING OF 0.5 AROUND THE CENTER AT 12Z. HOWEVER THE
0930Z GCOM AND 1109Z SSMI MICRO-WAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS
FRAGMENTED WITHIN THIS BAND. THIS MORNING, THE 0513Z ASCAT SWATH WAS
ONLY COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM BUT ALREADY DEPICTED
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING ON THE
POLAR SIDE, INDICATED BY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
ALL THESE OBSERVATION DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

THE PARABOLIC TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY BOTH A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE SOUTH-WEST AND A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA IN THE EAST. UNDER THE
JOINED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES, THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS STILL FORECAST SIMILAR TRACKS BUT WITH A LIGHT DISPERSION
INCREASE DUE TO SOME ANALYSIS DIFFERENCES. THUS, THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY TURNED SOUTH-EASTWARD AND BEGAN TO ACCELERATE. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER LOW ENERGETIC WATERS AND SHIFTS
GRADUALLY UNDER A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET. IT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN A RELATIVELY QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE MERGING
WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW SATURDAY.=

風場掃描顯示中心已出現35節風力


MFR 06Z升格熱帶低壓，預計18Z或以前命名Daya。

WTIO22 FMEE 100612
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2016
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/02/2016 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 51.7 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
160NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  EXTENDING
UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2016/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
24.1 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

18Z提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
52.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 51.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 081602Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. THESE
ASCAT DATA INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

02Z發布TCFA

JTWC再度評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.8S 52.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 080551Z ASCAT PASS OVER THE AREA INDICATES 20-
25 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, CONFIRMED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

MFR編號熱帶擾動第4號，上望熱帶低壓

** WTIO22 FMEE 081230 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/02/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4  1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 53.1 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ET UP TO 220NM IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15-25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEA IN A 50NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2016/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
21.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.=

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9S 54.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 040535Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
LLCC, WITH FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.