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11P.Winston 巔峰橫掃斐濟-FMS評價150KT南半球史上最強

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    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2016-2-6 05:42

正文摘要:

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋   編號:09 F ( 11 P ) 名稱:Winston 以上資料來自:FMS、MSNZ、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

蜜露 發表於 2016-3-5 21:36


溫斯頓在斐濟的視頻.






Meow 發表於 2016-3-5 00:22
BoM在Winston登陸前最後一刻認為轉為熱帶低壓了。

以下是路徑圖。
11P.png
Meow 發表於 2016-3-1 23:48
小小的心意
2016-03-01 23.18.25.png
ben811018 發表於 2016-2-28 16:25

Meow 發表於 2016-2-27 22:27
2月27日昆士蘭以東「前熱帶氣旋」溫斯頓,或是副熱帶氣旋。

Winston 2016-02-27 0310Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-02-27_0310Z.jpg
ben811018 發表於 2016-2-27 15:30

擷取.PNG

深層對流雖然都消失殆盡
但低層環流中心還是相當明顯呢!
真的很頑強XD~

t02436 發表於 2016-2-26 12:51
JTWC重新評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P (WINSTON))
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.1S 167.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.6S
165.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS
BEING ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
251909Z 37GHZ WINDSAT AND 251946Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE SHALLOW CONVECTION CONSOLIDATED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATES 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POOR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

紐西蘭持續判定為副熱帶
WWNZ40 NZKL 260005
GALE WARNING 409
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
AT 260000UTC
OVER WATERS EAST OF 160E AND SOUTH OF 25S.
LOW 990HPA, FORMER CYCLONE WINSTON, NEAR 27S 163E MOVING
WESTNORTHWEST 10KT.
1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE:
CLOCKWISE 35KT EASING NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
2. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE:
CLOCKWISE 35KT DEVELOPING NEXT 6 HOURS.
GALE AREAS MOVING WITH LOW.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 403.

20160226.0400.himawari-8.ircolor.11P.WINSTON.40kts.993mb.27.4S.163.1E.100pc.jpg

BoM展望
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Winston is currently a vigorous extra-tropical system situated almost 2000km offshore from Queensland in the South Pacific Ocean. The system is expected to take a general westerly movement over the coming days, bringing it into the Bureau of Meteorology's Eastern Region of responsibility late Friday or early Saturday.

Ex-TC Winston will remain under strong wind shear on Friday, severely limiting its potential to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. During Saturday the system will encounter a more favourable environment over the southern Coral Sea (well offshore of the Queensland coast), allowing it a small window of opportunity to regain tropical cyclone structure. On Sunday the shear is forecast to increase again over the system.

The system is forecast to generate large and powerful surf along the southern Queensland coast until at least Sunday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday:Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%



20160225.2246.mta.ASCAT.wind.11P.WINSTON.40kts-993mb.274S.1631E.25km.jpg

11P_gefs_latest.png

vis-animated.gif

點評

那個SUBTROPIC是指分區,紐西蘭氣象四大海洋分區有副熱帶、太平洋、四十度、南方。  發表於 2016-2-27 22:26

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