簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-2-12 15:26
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BoM 06Z編號09U,預計24小時之內命名Uriah。巔峰強度方面上望80節,能達到澳式三級強烈熱帶氣旋。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 97.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [211 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 12/1200: 11.1S 97.4E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 998
+12: 12/1800: 11.5S 96.5E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 998
+18: 13/0000: 11.9S 95.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 13/0600: 12.4S 95.0E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 13/1800: 13.6S 93.6E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 989
+48: 14/0600: 15.1S 92.0E: 140 [255]: 055 [100]: 983
+60: 14/1800: 16.6S 90.4E: 160 [290]: 070 [130]: 972
+72: 15/0600: 18.2S 88.6E: 175 [330]: 080 [150]: 960
+96: 16/0600: 19.9S 85.3E: 220 [410]: 080 [150]: 959
+120: 17/0600: 20.6S 80.9E: 310 [570]: 075 [140]: 964
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 09U has been slow moving to the east and has recently turned to the
SSW, as forecast by the guidance.
Microwave and scatterometer satellite data is indicated an elongated centre
which has made the centre position somewhat uncertain. Current intensity of 25
knots is based on Dvorak CI of 2.0, which is mainly based on MET and PAT.
Scatteromenter winds indicates 25 to 30 knots in areas around the system.
Now that the system has turned to the southwest, there is good agreement between
the models for a WSW track to continue. Some on of the uncertainty in the
forecast positions is based on the large initial uncertainty.
Shear diagnostics indicate strong shear of about 30 knots but with reduced shear
to the system which is where it is moving. With the shear being E'ly and the
system expected to move in a WSW direction, system relative shear should also be
reduced.
Forecast intensity is based on standard development for 72 hours [starting from
T2.0]. The intensity is then forecast to plateau due to dry air wrapping around
the system and moving towards cooler water. Weakening slowly from Feb 16 00Z
with system near 20S and colder water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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