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日誌

93W Low擾動對流引爆-緯度太低-北上 17/2/14

熱度 9已有 1827 次閱讀2014-2-18 16:43

NEAR 1.9N 146.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 170006Z ASCAT PASS CAUGHT
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE LLCC AND INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MSI INDICATES A SLIGHT ELONGATION
IN THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CREATING A REGION OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE
LLCC WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 25
KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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