開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

15S.Emeraude 原地緩移 強度大起大落

簽到天數: 2214 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-3-14 21:45 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:06-20152016 ( 15 S )
名稱:Emeraude
15S.png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 03 14 19
JTWC升格日期:2016 03 16 02
命名日期  :2016 03 16 08
撤編日期  :2016 03 24 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):125 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓   :946 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
99S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.13S.88E

20160314.1150.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.13S.88E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-3-15 03:59 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 85 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

陳約禮@FB|2016-3-15 13:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格MEDIUM
abiosair.jpg
螺旋隱現
vis0.gif

20160315.0500.meteo7.x.ir1km.99SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-118S-872E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2016-3-15 23:06 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 升格熱低 目前上看 ITC
trajectoire.png
WTIO30 FMEE 151323
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2016/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 86.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/03/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2016/03/16 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2016/03/17 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/03/17 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/03/18 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 90.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN STRONG SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS WITHIN OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH BETTER DEFINED
CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS SMALL
WITH A DIAMETER OF THE FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR AROUND 160 NM. THE SYSTEM IS
OVER WARM WATERS, IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPECIALLY SOUTHWARDS. GIVEN THE MICRO-WAVE
PRESENTATION THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AT 12 UTC ... ABOVE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES
THAT ARE AROUND 25 KT.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE THE LEAD ON THE STEERING FLOW
AND A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED AT LEAST DURING 48
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT LONG THIS TRACK WILL
LAST WITH GFS AND THE UK BRINGING THE SYSTEM EAST OF 90E AND THE EURO
LEAVING THE SYSTEM WITHIN OUR AREA ... THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
A MEAN TRACK BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS.
THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AS THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARDS AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINU BUT GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) IS
EXPECTED ...



回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-3-16 05:35 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-3-16 09:37 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 85 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

陳約禮@FB|2016-3-16 14:38 | 顯示全部樓層
高層有雲捲風眼的跡象
vis-animated.gif
realearth.gif


點評

沒錯!!  發表於 2016-3-17 00:43
頭像是Winston  發表於 2016-3-16 23:33
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-3-16 23:35 | 顯示全部樓層
法國氣象局上望125節!

SWI_20152016.png

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 161227 RRA
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20152016
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (EMERAUDE)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2016/03/16 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
  8. (TEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX
  9. DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
  17. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
  18. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
  19. 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS:
  23. 12H: 2016/03/17 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
  24. CYCLONE
  25. 24H: 2016/03/17 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
  26. TROPICAL CYCLONE
  27. 36H: 2016/03/18 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
  28. TROPICAL CYCLONE
  29. 48H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
  30. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  31. 60H: 2016/03/19 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY
  32. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  33. 72H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
  34. TROPICAL CYCLONE
  35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  36. 96H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 90.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
  37. CYCLONE
  38. 120H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
  39. TROPICAL STORM
  40. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  41. T=CI=4.5+
複製代碼
回復

使用道具 舉報

123下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表