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【南印】13S.BINGIZA TS 三次登陸 步向衰亡

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[LV.5]常住居民I

2011-2-8 09:24 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-3-16 22:05 編輯



(上為自動更新)
13S.BINGIZA
11021318584e16136079b15736.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2011-2-9 08:34 | 顯示全部樓層
abiosair.jpg
poor
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[LV.5]常住居民I

yuloucn|2011-2-9 21:33 | 顯示全部樓層


法国气象局的报文:
ZCZC 821
WTIO30 FMEE 091241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (05-20102011)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 55.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE:       SE: 190   SO: 190   NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/10 00 UTC: 13.9S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/10 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/11 00 UTC: 14.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/11 12 UTC: 14.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 15.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  12/02/2011 12 UTC: 17.8S/53.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 12/02/2011 12 UTC: 20.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DESPITE AN UNFAVOURABLE DIURNAL CYCLE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME RECENT STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS ... CONSEQUENTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT (FRIDAY NIGHT), UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER SHEAR UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AN
D GOOD OUTFLOW SPECIALLY POLEWARDS. THEREFORE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION
RATE IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TOMORROW A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM AROUND 50E AND GENERATE A STRONG WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL POLEWARDS TURN AND
A SLOW DOWN OF THE TRA
CK. LATEST MODELS FROM 00Z AGREE WITH THIS SOUTHWARDS TURN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, SOME MODELS LIKE UKMO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND OTHER MODELS LIKE THE VERY LAST ECMWF
SHOW NOW A SOUTHWARDS
TRACK ...
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE TRACKS ...
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREGNES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN
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[LV.5]常住居民I

yuloucn|2011-2-9 21:53 | 顯示全部樓層
11_27620_4dda29bb8484978.jpg

11_27620_8ca5d4c2a1a30d2.gif

TCFA,我认为会在西南行在马达加斯加岛以东转向
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

開梅|2011-2-9 22:54 | 顯示全部樓層
不知道這個熱帶氣旋會給留尼旺島帶來多大降雨
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[LV.5]常住居民I

yuloucn|2011-2-10 12:57 | 顯示全部樓層
20110210_0300_meteo7_x_ir1km_bw_13SBINGIZA_45kts-989mb-139S-542E_100pc.jpg
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 991 HPA.
POSITION LE 10 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES:   13.5 SUD / 54.2 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST).
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locecc111|2011-2-10 14:17 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2011-2-10 14:36 | 顯示全部樓層
好像卡在原地不動...
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