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1605 奧麥斯 通過日本東方海域 轉化溫帶氣旋

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-8-1 13:21 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-2 14:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012358Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

JMA預測24小時內增強為TD
16080309.png

GFS看好發展
98W_gefs_latest.png

rb-animated.gif

點評

可別變成 phoon(糞)ty(颱) pool  發表於 2016-8-3 13:29
今年不知道會不會再創一個紀錄,生出最多無害颱  發表於 2016-8-2 15:54
GFS看好,還預測未來高壓甚至東退到換日線之東,該海域成為typhoon pool  發表於 2016-8-2 15:12
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-3 14:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY
365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 022339Z ASCAT
PASS ALSO REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WEAK
WINDS OBSERVED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) EXTENDING 300 TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEYOND 36 HOURS,
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

98W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-8-3 15:50 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-4 12:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 040430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 146.9E TO 24.3N 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
040400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
146.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 146.8E, APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN ILL-
DEFINED, BROAD CENTER. MSI ALSO SHOWS SMALL MESOVORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON DEPRESSION; THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE CENTROID RATHER THAN ON THESE SHORT-LIVED
MESOVORTICES. A 032321Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF 30-KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM. A 040003Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW BANDING
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL POLEWARD TRACK MOVEMENT WITH SLOW
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050430Z.//
NNNN

wp982016.20160804042002.gif

20160804.0004.mta.ASCAT.wind.98W.INVEST.30kts-1000mb.190N.1470E.25km.jpg

98W_gefs_latest.png

vis-animated.gif

點評

又是個整合乏力的季風低壓。環流廣而鬆散,中心空洞,又筆直朝北前進...  發表於 2016-8-4 13:11
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-4 15:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA命名奧麥斯!
台風第5号 (オーマイス)
平成28年08月04日16時05分 発表

<04日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 18度50分(18.8度)
東経 148度30分(148.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        東側 520km(280NM)
西側 370km(200NM)

<05日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 21度40分(21.7度)
東経 148度10分(148.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        985hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<06日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 25度00分(25.0度)
東経 147度50分(147.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 310km(170NM)

<07日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 28度25分(28.4度)
東経 146度40分(146.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 370km(200NM)

JMA_1605_0804_06Z_ 72.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

blackcat|2016-8-4 16:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC:
WP, 98, 2016080406,   , BEST,   0, 190N, 1467E,  30, 1000, MD

MD=Monsoon Depression=季風低壓
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-8-4 17:58 | 顯示全部樓層
未命名.png

CWB首報
預測強度上看40m/s

點評

給的太歡樂了  發表於 2016-8-5 12:06
看來CWB強度預報變動率頗高,暫時還是參考就好...  發表於 2016-8-5 10:25
妮妲當時也是,CWB一度預報巔峰43m/s以上,後來又下修回中颱下限  發表於 2016-8-5 10:24
2點這報下修至30m/s(輕颱上限)  發表於 2016-8-5 07:04
緯度高了點,但這種大規模半徑才100公里  發表於 2016-8-4 21:51
20點報下修至33m/s  發表於 2016-8-4 21:48
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