t02436

NHC提升評級至High

1. A low pressure system located over the central Bay of Campeche
about 200 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico is producing an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph
and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico on Monday.
Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, a tropical
depression is still likely to form later today or on Monday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, areas of heavy rain are
expected over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
These rains could could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

第一次飛機實測已經啟動

t02436

第二次飛機實側進行中
0658Z測得10秒SFMR海平面風速 44節，09Z有機會命名Danielle

065600 2004N 09546W 8428 01583 0123 +159 +074 308013 016 019 007 00
065630 2003N 09545W 8424 01582 0130 +137 +071 302011 014 024 006 00
065700 2002N 09544W 8438 01569 0126 +148 +073 278017 018 031 017 00
065730 2001N 09542W 8436 01572 0134 +137 +069 273017 020 035 024 01
065800 1959N 09541W 8421 01590 0125 +152 +062 295024 026 044 016 01
065830 1958N 09540W 8438 01574 0107 +182 +056 278023 032 033 008 01
065900 1957N 09538W 8428 01583 0107 +183 +058 274020 021 025 000 01
065930 1956N 09537W 8434 01578 0115 +171 +063 271019 021 027 001 00
070000 1954N 09535W 8424 01589 0116 +171 +054 277019 020 026 000 01
070030 1953N 09534W 8433 01581 0117 +170 +063 279020 022 030 000 03
070100 1952N 09533W 8426 01586 0118 +169 +075 281021 022 032 000 05

t02436

第3A報命名Danielle

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 96.0 West.  Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so.  On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening
is forecast before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

jwpk9899

大約在今天早上八點前後登陸墨西哥了