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10E.Ivette 風切干擾 發展不如預期

簽到天數: 2414 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-8-2 00:36 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:10 E
名稱:Ivette
10E.png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 08 01 23
命名日期  :2016 08 03 17
撤編日期  :2016 08 11 17
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC):50 kt ( TS )
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC):30 kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓1000 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
TWTYBBS_10E_IVETTE_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.jpg

  討論帖圖片  
92E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.10N.109W

20160801.1615.goes-13.vis.1km.92E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.10N.109W.080pc.jpg
NHC:30%
1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure,
continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent two_pac_2d1.png

以上資料來自:NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-3 08:29 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 21Z升格10E,預測06Z之前命名
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 022033
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest
of mainland Mexico has become better organized.  ASCAT data
indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding
features forming around the surface center.  Thus tropical cyclone
advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and
the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Gradual
strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone
remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid-
level humidity.  The official forecast is a bit higher than the
model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this
season.

ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion
of 290/15.  A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is
expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over
the next few days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5,
which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system
approaches the central Pacific.  Track guidance is in remarkable
agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near,
but slightly faster than, the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-3 17:06 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC命名Ivette,將有機會以颶風強度進入中太
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030859
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has gradually improved
since yesterday afternoon, with an increase in banding over the
western portion of the circulation.  Microwave images show
that the center is located near the northeastern edge of the
convective band due to moderate northeasterly shear, but a new
burst of deep convection has very recently developed near the
estimate center location.  Although earlier ASCAT data showed
maximum winds around 30 kt, the recent improvement in organization
and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support increasing the
initial intensity to 35 kt.  Ivette becomes the ninth tropical storm
to form in the eastern Pacific basin since July 2nd.

Ivette is moving westward at an atypically fast speed of 17 kt.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep
it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next several
days, with the forward speed gradually decreasing as it nears the
western portion of the ridge.  By late in the period, Ivette should
turn west-northwestward and decelerate further as a break in the
ridge develops between 140W and 150W.  The updated NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory, but has been nudged southward to
be closer to the multi-model consensus.

The northeasterly shear affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This should allow
strengthening while Ivette moves over warm water and remains
in a moist environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the
statistical guidance and is closer to the HWRF model, which brings
Ivette to hurricane strength in a couple of days.  Increasing
southwesterly shear, slightly cooler SSTs, and drier mid-level air
should cause gradual weakening late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 15.2N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 17.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

085651W_sm.gif

20160803.0542.mtb.ASCAT.wind.10E.TEN.30kts-1006mb.140N.1186W.25km.jpg

20160803.0830.goes-15.ircolor.10E.TEN.30kts.1006mb.14N.118.5W.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-8 11:45 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 03Z正報降格熱帶低壓,即將跨越西經140度,09Z報將交由CPHC發報
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080247
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The deep convection that was near the center of Ivette earlier in
the day has been sheared away, with the closest area of
thunderstorms about 80 n mi northeast of the center.  This is
the result of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear.  A pair of ASCAT
passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds near 35 kt in
the northern portion of the circulation.  Assuming some spin down
since that time, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making
Ivette a tropical depression.  This intensity estimate is also in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Although some deep convection could return near the center,
continued strong southwesterly shear and dry air should limit the
organization of this activity and cause weakening. Ivette is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2 to 3 days.

The shallow cyclone has turned westward in the low-level flow.  A
general westward motion at about 10 kt is expected until the
cyclone dissipates.  The NHC official track forecast lies on the
southern edge of the guidance, and is adjusted to the south of the
previous prediction.

The next advisory on Ivette will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 17.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 17.6N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 17.8N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  09/1200Z 17.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  10/0000Z 17.4N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

024659W_sm.gif

中心已經全裸了,大約大去之期不遠矣。
20160808.0245.goes-15.vis.1km.10E.IVETTE.35kts.1006mb.17.3N.139.4W.100pc.jpg

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