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96B 近陸對流發展

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-8-9 20:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 0908morakot 於 2016-8-12 10:29 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :96 B
擾動編號日期:2016 08 09 20
撤編日期  :2016 08 11 22
96B.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.21.8N.88.5E

20160809.1200.meteo-7.ir.96B.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.21.8N.88.5E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-9 21:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 091138Z NOAA-
18 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 090418Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NEAR
THE COAST OF BANGLADESH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. DUE TO THE POSITION STRADDLING THE
COAST OF BANGLADESH AND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

abiosair.jpg

12Z直接評價30節
96B INVEST 160809 1200  21.6N   89.2E IO     30   995

20160809.1138.noaa18.89rgb.96B.INVEST.30kts.995mb.22.4N.88.4E.085pc.jpg

96B_gefs_latest.png

IMD表示有機會在24小時之內加強為低壓
** WTIN20 DEMS 090751 ***
          TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 09.08.2016

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
09TH AUGUST, 2016 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 09TH AUGUST, 2016.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN EARLY
MORNING OF TODAY AND LAY AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAME
REGION AT 0300 UTC OF 9TH AUGUST, 2016. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER NORTH BAY OF
BENGAL.. SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA DURING
NEXT 72 HOURS:
24 HOURS      MODERATE
24-48 HOURS   HIGH
48-72 HOURS   NIL

20160809.1330.meteo-7.ircolor.96B.INVEST.30kts.995mb.21.6N.89.2E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-9 22:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC火速發布TCFA。
io962016.20160809141808.gif

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-8-11 00:06 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-8-11 09:58 | 顯示全部樓層
Suomi NPP擷取8月10日位在孟加拉的深低壓。

Deep Depression 2016-08-10 0730Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-08-10_0730Z.jpg
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