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1609 蒲公英 於日本首都圈登陸 雨勢猛烈刷破多站紀錄

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[LV.6]常住居民II

2016-8-17 14:52 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1609 ( 10 W )
名稱:蒲公英(Mindulle)
Mindulle 2016-08-22 0345Z.jpg

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2016 08 17 14
升格熱低日期:2016 08 17 20
命名日期  :2016 08 19 14
停編日期  :2016 08 23 11
登陸地點  :日本 千葉縣 館山市
          北海道 日高町

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :35 m/s ( 65 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) : 55 kts ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓: 975 百帕
七級風半徑  : 180 公里
十級風半徑  :   60 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1609_蒲公英_MINDULLE_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  討論帖圖片  
99W.INVEST.15.kts.1010mb.15N.140E
20160817.0550.himawari8.x.vis2km.99WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-150N-1400E.100pc.jpg
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 15N 141E ENE SLOWLY.

221744rmm17gx7v7tr4bfq.png

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-17 21:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.3N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170943Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
UNORGANIZED, SHALLOW, AND FRAGMENTED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

99W_gefs_latest.png

點評

JMA 12Z升格熱帶低壓 [attachimg]64227[/attachimg] [attachimg]64228[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2016-8-17 22:17
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-17 22:17 | 顯示全部樓層

JMA 12Z升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 15N 141E ENE SLOWLY.

16081721.png

20160817.1340.himawari-8.ircolor.99W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.15.2N.140.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

blackcat|2016-8-17 22:41 | 顯示全部樓層
這隻風場還不錯
看會不會先殺出一條血路

817.99W.png

點評

看來是如此,JTWC評級Low兩小時之後直接改發布TCFA [attachimg]64239[/attachimg] [attachimg]64237[/attachimg] [attachimg]64238[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2016-8-18 00:20
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-18 00:20 | 顯示全部樓層
blackcat 發表於 2016-8-17 22:41
這隻風場還不錯
看會不會先殺出一條血路

看來是如此,JTWC評級Low兩小時之後直接改發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 139.8E TO 17.6N 148.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 140.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 171143Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE INTO
THE 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE TO THE SOUTH. AN OLDER 170843Z
CORIOLIS PASS SHOWED SHALLOW FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE FEEDING THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181600Z.//
NNNN

wp9916.gif

20160817.1238.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.152N.1406E.25km.jpg

rb0.gif

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[LV.1]初來乍到

陳聰@FB|2016-8-18 01:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 陳聰@FB 於 2016-8-18 01:58 編輯

DoraboyTCFSV1.07(自製系集) 預測99W完違反季風環流圈西南側低壓向東北/停留不動的特性 調轉預報向西走 哈哈
hi.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-8-18 10:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC初報巔峰暫時上望55節,後期路徑可能會複製璨樹。
wp1016.gif

wp102016.20160818015523.gif

rbtop-animated.gif

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 15.1N 142.0E MARIANAS MOVING EAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

16081809.png

點評

JMA 00Z發布Warning.  發表於 2016-8-18 10:42
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-8-18 11:43 | 顯示全部樓層


雖然10W的渦度僅紅色 , 但是他的高層環境是目前最好的 .

wgmswvir.GIF


wgmsshr.GIF


10W_tracks_18z.png


路徑和之前的幾個颱風類似

點評

99W和98W大概無法達到中颱水準,至於96W就看要在海上混多久才要北上  發表於 2016-8-19 08:20
目前趨勢來看.可能是... 我是比較看好99W . 96W渦度雖然好.但對流差  發表於 2016-8-18 16:49
會是「蒲公英」颱風的前身嗎?  發表於 2016-8-18 15:13
會是蒲公英颱風的前身嗎?  發表於 2016-8-18 15:11
等到未來回頭看2016年維基百科的圖會以為今年颱風特別少,其實是因為路徑都差不多全部糾結在一起  發表於 2016-8-18 13:03
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