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1616 馬勒卡 掠過東部近海 於東海置換再增強 橫掃日本南部

簽到天數: 2586 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-9-8 14:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-14 12:31 編輯

  中度颱風  
編號:1616 ( 18 W )
名稱:馬勒卡 ( Malakas )
1616.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 09 08 14
升格熱低日期:2016 09 12 02
命名日期  :2016 09 13 02
停編日期  :2016 09 20 20
登陸地點  :日本 鹿兒島縣 大隅半島
          和歌山縣 田邊市
颱風警報統計:海上警報 20
       陸上警報 16

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):45 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :45 m/s ( 85 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) :  110 kts ( Cat. 3 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:940 百帕
七級風半徑  :180 公里
十級風半徑  :060 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1616_馬勒卡_MALAKAS_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png
1616_馬勒卡_MALAKAS_TRACK_WARNING_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  影片紀錄  
[youtube]https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=2s&v=bimL8CUVLP4[/youtube]
  討論帖圖片  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.0N-164.0E

20160908.0600.himawari8.x.vis1km.90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-110N-1640E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

點評

alu
楊文達 不是喜歡跟別人不一樣而是我只會這方法上傳圖片,其它方法上傳都失敗  發表於 2016-9-8 18:00
發文格式喜歡跟別人不一樣 ..算你屌..  發表於 2016-9-8 15:56

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-9-9 08:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 22Z評級LOW 後期數值愾好發展
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN FLARING,
SHALLOW, AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 081047Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (4).jpg 90W_geps_latest.png


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[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2016-9-9 14:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z評級MEDIUM
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 162.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 161.7E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJELANG, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. A 082233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.


abpwsair.jpg

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該用戶從未簽到

r96340|2016-9-11 19:11 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
這會不會有被莫蘭蒂吃掉的可能?像90W這種位在路徑附近的弱小風暴感覺會被吞掉…

點評

alu
距離有點遠,不太可能被莫蘭蒂吃掉  發表於 2016-9-11 19:15
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[LV.6]常住居民II

陳約禮@FB|2016-9-11 22:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC14Z發TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 111400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 146.6E TO 14.0N 140.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 146.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
147.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INTENSIFIED CONVECTION. A 111125Z METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED WITH EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM ANDERSEN AFB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR OUTFLOW BUT WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE OUTFLOW OF TY 16W. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER 90W PASSES THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121400Z.
//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2016-9-11 22:51 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA
wp9016.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-9-12 07:37 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z升格18W,初報巔峰上望115節。
wp182016.20160911224721.gif

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

正宜27|2016-9-12 10:41 | 顯示全部樓層
小j 發布GW c-00.png
熱帯低気圧
平成28年09月12日10時30分 発表
<12日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
        東経 143度05分(143.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
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